The Saskatchewan Health Authority’s CEO is optimistic about the data coming in for this province on flattening the curve. Scott Livingstone says the proof is in the numbers and new calculations will be released weekly.

The Basic Reproductive Number for Saskatchewan is 3.12, meaning if no restrictions had been put in place, anyone with the virus would transmit it to 3.12 people on average. The Effective Reproductive Number for Saskatchewan is where we are now with 0.7 cases of transmission per infected person.

Originally, the worst case scenario introduced on April 8th was over 83-hundred deaths and now the data projects just over 3-thousand deaths. Livingstone stresses that doesn’t mean there will be that many COVID-19 deaths in the province. It’s just for planning how to respond to the worst case scenario.

The updated scenario estimates needing 1-thousand fewer hospital beds, 400 fewer ICU beds and ventilators. The preparation continues for field hospitals in Saskatoon and Regina if the transmission rate increases. Livingstone say, the SHA and Ministry of Health are developing a plan for what happens next if the transmission numbers stay low. It would be a staged approach of bringing back community services, elective surgeries and diagnostics that have been impacted by service slowdowns. There is no set date, but Livingstone says it will be in the near future.

Click here for the SHA’s power point presentation.