Canada’s COVID-19 modelling projections from April 9th didn’t take into consideration the large number of outbreaks in long term care homes, so the number of deaths was under-predicted. The new modelling suggests between 53,000 and 67,000 cases of the virus by May 5th and 3300 to 3900 deaths. Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, says to date, there are 49,025 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Canada and 2766 deaths. From the 740,000 tests, 7 per cent have tested positive.

She sees a tragic paradox as the epidemic comes under control, with the number of severe illnesses and deaths on those who are at higher risk, including those in long term care homes. Dr. Tam advises to continue to be vigilant because we are making progress, but the reality is COVID-19 will be around for awhile. Until most of the country is immune or there is a vaccine, we will have to live with a manageable level of COVID activity. That means some public health measures like physical distancing will have to remain to prevent the sparking and growth of future epidemic waves.

In order for the virus to die out, we need to get to a point where if someone gets COVID-19, they infect on average, less than 1 person. Tam says prior to implementing public health control measures in March, the average number of transmissions was projected as just over 2 and now it’s just above 1.