Scotiabank’s Provincial Outlook sees a deep recession in Saskatchewan this year but it upgrades the province’s outlook over the course of the year. The Outlook credits the success in containing the spread of COVID-19. The report says, “The significant deterioration in oil and gas industry fortunes has clearly weighed heavily on Saskatchewan’s economy, where the sector accounted for 15% of GDP last year.” Halfway through the year, crude production was down 8.6 per cent.

Scotiabank says, outside of the energy sector, Saskatchewan has generally seen encouraging labour market results relative to the rest of the country. The province’s commodity profile outside of oil also looks to be becoming more supportive.

The report says that the best economic news to come out of the province this year might be the strength of the agriculture industry. In the end, the conclusion is that Saskatchewan’s economy will take a hit this year but looks set to avoid record fiscal pressures. The forecast net debt-to-GDP ratio of 21% is the lowest in any province.