Saskatchewan’s Chief Medical Health Officer says most of the cases of COVID-19 are now are from community transmission. New modelling from the province shows how COVID-19 numbers could spike unless people wear masks and practice physical distancing. One version inputs 60% of us wearing masks which results in 34 deaths over 6 months. Another version shows 20% wearing masks and a death toll in six months of 4,800.

The COVID-19 modelling released from the Saskatchewan Health Authority shows an optimistic 76 cases a day on average over the next six months with 60% mask use. The model involving 20% mask use predicts 8,390 new cases. Chief Medical Health Officer, Dr. Saqib Shahab, says it’s more difficult to figure out where transmission comes from if it isn’t connected to an outbreak. Right now, the average number of contacts per confirmed case is 11, which Shahab says is too many. It also makes contact tracing more complicated. Dr. Shahab says the high number of cases from community transmission is why we need to stay home and reduce our number of contacts.

Both Moderna and Pfizer getting close to having vaccines ready for mass use. The Canadian government has bought about 2-million doses for the first quarter of the year and of that, Health Minister Paul Merriman says Saskatchewan will receive about 180,000. They will be distributed on a priority basis, with decisions on that yet to be announced from the federal government, but he expects it will put seniors and front line health care workers at the top of the list. Dr. Shahab expects vaccine dispersal will continue into next fall.

Click this link for the modelling numbers: modelling Nov 19