We may have seen economic recovery since April in Canada, but it’s still too early to call the end of the recession. That’s according to a new C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council report.

In March and April, the Council says Canada saw unprecedented declines in economic activity. Real GDP fell 7.1 percent in March, and 11.4 percent in April, vastly exceeding anything since the Great Depression. Employment fell 5.3 percent in March, and 11 percent in April – both records. In March, economic output fell in 80 percent of industries relative to their February levels, and in April, output fell in 90 percent of industries relative to March.
The Council met in April and declared a recession had been entered, with February being the peak of the previous expansionary period.

Despite Canada experiencing broad economic growth since the end of April, output is still well below the February peak, and the improvements observed to date have been sustained for only a few months, with COVID-19 not yet fully resolved.
That’s why the Council is not prepared to say we have seen the end of the recession.