Most areas of the province are heading into winter with below to well below normal soil moisture, according to the Water Security Agency’s 2023 Conditions at Freeze-Up Report. While some parts of the province experienced higher than normal spring runoff events because of an unusually fast spring thaw, the last half of the summer and fall were drier than normal.

The report says that apart from Lake Diefenbaker, which has been impacted by dry conditions in Alberta, most larger water supply reservoirs in south and central Saskatchewan are at near normal elevations for this time of year. There is concern of surface water supply issues in the southwest if winter snowfall is below average. In some cases, an above normal snowpack is needed to stave off the extremely dry conditions.

There are two runoff scenarios for southern and east central Saskatchewan because of an early snowfall, followed by below normal temperatures, leaving the areas snow covered for a time. The scenarios are increased soil moisture or higher runoff flows. Winter streamflows on the North Saskatchewan River are expected to be slightly below normal through the winter. On the South Saskatchewan River, inflows to Lake Diefenbaker are expected to remain below normal through the winter.

Freeze-up conditions, in combination with the winter snowpack, become the initial base for the spring snowmelt runoff forecast. This report gives an early indication of areas that are more vulnerable to potentially above or below normal runoff in the spring.