Canada is not in a recession, but is skating very close to the line, according to the chief economist of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. Simon Gaudreault says their numbers show GDP growth in the third quarter at 0.3 per cent. He expects a slight rebound at 1.4 per cent growth in the fourth quarter, during the holiday shopping season.

Gaudreault considers the Christmas season integral to the bottom line for many small and medium-sized businesses, but adds that business barometer indicates optimism is low. Retailers selling big ticket items appear even less confident, expecting to be affected by slowing demand is everyone tries to make their budgets balance. He urges everyone to shop local when they can, noting that 66 cents of every dollar stays within the local economy. Multinational businesses with physical stores in Canada recirculate only 11 cents of every dollar into local economies and it’s only 8 cents from online giants.

CFIB’s chief economist adds that inflation is top of mind for businesses and consumers alike. He suggests if inflation sticks around at 3 per cent, it’s not impossible that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates one more time, but adds that indicators point to a marked slowdown. The Bank of Canada’s new overnight interest rate will be announced Wednesday morning.